Isilinganiso sikawoyela esindayo sase-Alberta, i-Western Canadian Select (WCS), iphele isonto ngaphansi kuka-US$50 umphongolo okokuqala kusukela ekupheleni konyaka odlule.Ukwehla okusha kuka-2022 kusolwa ngokwengxenye ukwehlisa amanani kawoyela ngokujwayelekile, kodwa ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwanda komehluko kawoyela osindayo waseCanada.
I-OPEC+ RALLY FIZZLES
Izintengo zikawoyela bezilokhu zehla kancane kancane engxenyeni yesibili yango-2022. Izintengo zithole iqhubu elincane ekuqaleni kuka-Okthoba, ngemuva kokuthi i-OPEC+ ikhethe ukwehlisa izabelo zokukhiqiza ngezigidi ezingu-2 bbl/ngosuku.Ukwehliswa kwangempela bekusondele ku-1 million bbl/ngosuku ngenxa yokuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo phakathi kwamalungu abalulekile we-OPEC.
Izimpawu zokuntengantenga komnotho womhlaba selokhu zacisha iningi lalezo zinzuzo.I-WTI iphele isonto ngama-US$76 umgqomo, yehle isuka ngaphezu kwama-US$120 ngoJuni.I-OPEC manje ithi ibona imakethe egcwele ngokweqile engxenyeni yesine, futhi mancane amathuba okuthi inyuse ama-quotas emhlanganweni wabo ozayo wangomhla zizi-4 kuZibandlela.
Isaphulelo sika-WCS
Nakuba wonke ama-benchmarks aluhlaza ehlile kusukela kwaphezulu ekuqaleni kukaNovemba, i-WCS ihlupheke kakhulu kunaningi, ngenxa yokwenyuswa kwesaphulelo sayo ku-WTI.
Amanani kawoyela kanye nokwehluka kuvame ukungathandeki ebusika, lapho isidingo sikawoyela sibuthaka kakhulu.Kodwa-ke, izaphulelo zalo nyaka zibanzi kakhulu kusukela ngemiyalo yokuncishiswa yango-2019, okungenzeka ngenxa yokubuya kwesiminyaminya emapayipini okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
Uxhaxha lwamapayipi eWestern Canada lwaphela u-2021 lunendawo yokuphumula, ngenxa yokuphothulwa kwe-Enbridge's Line 3 Replacement Project ngo-Okthoba 2021. I-TC Energy selokhu yaqeda ukunwetshwa okungu-50,000 bbl/ngosuku kwepayipi layo le-Keystone elingeze isikhala esengeziwe.Umthamo wokuthekelisa ongahluziwe, ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo ecolisisiwe, ulinganiselwa ku-4.0 million bbl/ngosuku.
Nakuba ezokuthutha ngojantshi zilahlekelwe ukucwebezela kwazo, zisabala cishe u-125,000 bb/ngosuku wokuthunyelwa kwempahla engahluziwe, okushintshile kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sangonyaka odlule.
PHO OKUSHINTSHIWE NGANI?
Lo nyaka ubonakale umatasa kakhulu kubasebenzi bezihlabathi zikawoyela zokunakekela, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yokuhlehliswa kokuvalwa ngesikhathi sodlame.Ingxenye enkulu ka-2022, i-Enbridge's Mainline, ethutha cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-crude yase-Canada, ibisebenza ngaphansi komthamo ngenxa yokwehla kokuhlinzekwa.
Kodwa lowo mkhuba usuhlehlile, futhi ukukhiqizwa kukhule kakhulu ngekota yesine.Ukukhiqizwa kwebitumen ikakhulukazi, cishe konke okuthunyelwa e-US, kulindeleke ukuthi kuphume ngo-2022 ngerekhodi elisha eliphezulu.Ukunikezwa kwe-Dilbit kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzoba phezulu ngokufika ku-300,000 bbl/ngosuku kulo Disemba uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, lapho isaphulelo se-WCS sasingu-$15 kuphela umphongolo.
I-Enbridge manje ithi i-Mainline izohlukaniswa ngoDisemba, okusho ukuthi abanye abakhiqizi kuzodingeka babheke ezinye izindlela.I-Mainline inomthamo wokuthekelisa ongahluziwe wezigidi ezingu-3.1 bbl/ngosuku, cishe izigidi ezingu-2.3 bbl/ngosuku zibekelwe abathumbi bakawoyela abasindayo.
Kuncane kakhulu ukunqamuka kokulungisa okuhleliwe ngonyaka ozayo, okusho ukuthi u-2023 cishe uzoba omunye unyaka oyirekhodi ezihlabathini zikawoyela.I-Trans Mountain Expansion Project ngeke isetshenziswe kuze kube ikota yesine, okungenzeka ithumele eminye yaleyo miphongolo emathangeni okugcina, noma ezinqoleni zesitimela.
Ngaphandle kwanoma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka okukhulu ezihlabathini zikawoyela, noma ukubuyiselwa kwezabelo ezincishisiwe, yonke imigwaqo ikhomba isaphulelo esibanzi ngo-2023.